Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.