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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may see the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.